The Salt Lake Tribune June 9, 2010

HEADLINE: High school dropouts cost Utah millions

Economy - Students who don't finish make and contribute less

By Lisa Schencker

Dropping out of high school can cost Utah students their futures.

But it can cost everyone else, too. A new report released by the Washington, D.C.-based Alliance for Excellent Education on Wednesday shows how much money dropouts in three Utah counties are costing the state.

If half of the students who dropped out of the Class of 2008 in Salt Lake, Tooele and Summit counties had stayed in school, they could have earned $18 million more, spent an additional $12 million and invested an additional $4.6 million a year on average, according to the alliance. The report on the Salt Lake City metropolitan area was among 43 similar reports on areas throughout the country that the alliance released Wednesday in hopes of inspiring improvement.

"We wanted to show there's a direct dollars and cents return on investments to sharply reducing the dropout rate," said Bob Wise, president of the alliance and former governor of West Virginia. "We also wanted to show for that person who does not have a child in the public school system, they have a direct stake in how each child is doing."

The Salt Lake City metropolitan area report also shows that the additional earning and spending could have meant $2.5 million more in state and local tax revenue a year on average. And by the midpoint of their careers, those students could have purchased homes worth $70 million more than what they would spend without a diploma.

Pam Perlich, a senior research economist at the University of Utah, hasn't examined the methodology used by the alliance to come up with its estimates. But she said the group's main point is in line with other research showing that people with higher levels of educational attainment will have better economic outcomes.

"It's very settled that people who have higher levels of education are more productive, and that pays off over the course of their entire working lives," Perlich said. "No matter what the magnitude of the number is they come up with, the general point is a great investment in education by residents of the state will lead to higher levels of economic performance by people in the state."

The alliance calculated its numbers using dropout counts estimated by the Editorial Projects in Education Research Center, based partly on 2005 graduation rates. The alliance used local individual spending and investment patterns and current state and local tax rates to come up with some of the figures.

Using those numbers, the alliance estimated that 3,500 students in Salt Lake, Tooele and Summit counties dropped out of the Class of 2008.

According to the State Office of Education, Utah's high school graduation rate in 2008 was 88 percent and its dropout rate was 12 percent. Several reports released in recent weeks, however, show Utah's graduation rate is lower than that because of differences in the way groups calculate the rates and define graduates and dropouts.

For example, the National Center for Education Statistics released data earlier this month showing Utah's graduation rate at 74.3 percent in 2008 -- ranking Utah 34th in the nation. Conversely, Education Week released data today showing that in 2007, Utah's graduation rate was 77.1 percent, ranking the state 12th in the nation.

Starting next school year, the federal government will make all states use the same formula and rules to calculate graduation rates in an effort to make sure rates aren't inflated and to make comparisons between states easier.

Judy Park, state associate superintendent, said she's confident the state office's data is accurate. Utah tracks each student through high school starting in 10th grade. The state then divides the graduates in a class by the graduates plus dropouts, not counting students who transferred out of the system.

But state officials have said they hope to boost the state's graduation rate and narrow gaps between graduation rates of ethnic and racial groups, and they're hoping to win up to $175 million in federal Race to the Top money to help accomplish that.